Bitcoin Volatility Sends Price Above $87,000: Can Q2 Deliver a Meaningful Rebound?
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On April 21, BTC surged past $87,000, sparking fresh market speculation. At the same time, ETH climbed above $1,600 and SOL topped $140, while altcoins posted modest gains, all pointing toward evidence of a robust rebound. According to CoinGlass, 24-hour liquidations across all open futures positions reached $220 million, including $142 million in shorts. Yet despite Bitcoin's volatile upswing, global macroeconomic uncertainty continues to weigh on sentiment. Federal Reserve policy, the administration's tariff policies, and other factors have created a complex backdrop. Investors are now asking: will Bitcoin keep rising? When will Q2's turning point arrive? This article analyzes Bitcoin's current situation and outlook from three angles: the macroeconomic environment, present market conditions, and institutional perspectives.
1. Persistent Macro Uncertainty: Fed Policy and Tariffs as Key Drivers
Current market uncertainty stems mainly from policy developments, especially the latest drama surrounding the Federal Reserve and U.S. trade policy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently reaffirmed a hawkish stance, stating that even amid sharp market volatility, the Fed will not intervene lightly. That statement disappointed investors expecting a policy shift and put downward pressure on risk assets, making sentiment more cautious.
At the same time, President Trump's recent comments on tariffs hinted at a thaw, in which he said U.S.-China tariff increases “may soon end." However, the policy outlook remains unclear and these statements have not materially eased the market's anxiety. This high level of macro uncertainty has driven safe-haven assets higher, as spot gold hit a record $3,364 per ounce, while crypto markets have oscillated without establishing a clear trend.
Overall, the Fed's tightening bias and the ambiguity of trade policy are profoundly affecting global markets, especially Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Policy direction has become the key variable, and until clearer signals emerge, market sentiment is likely to remain in a holding pattern.
2. Market Snapshot: Can the Rally Last After Breaking $87,000?
Bitcoin's recent surge past $87,000 represents a critical inflection point. Some investors view this breakout as the potential start of a new bull market. On-chain data show that "whales" continue to accumulate: wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC now control roughly 67.77% of the total supply, and since March 22 they have added over 53,600 BTC. This large-holder behavior underscores their bullish outlook on Bitcoin's next moves.
However, the rebound rests on a fragile foundation. Matrixport's report notes that for Bitcoin's rally to sustain, several catalysts must align:
- The Federal Reserve signaling a dovish shift or beginning rate cuts
- Increased stablecoin liquidity and higher leverage activity
- A resurgence of macro liquidity via global monetary easing or fiscal stimulus
In the near term, these drivers have not fully materialized. As a result, the current upswing is more likely a short-lived rebound than a lasting trend reversal.
3. Divergent Institutional Views: Early Bull Market or End of Consolidation?
Although market sentiment has turned positive, not all analysts share a bullish outlook on Bitcoin's next move. Institutions are split on whether this marks the start of a new bull run or simply the end of a consolidation phase.
- Bullish camp: Chris Burniske, partner at Placeholder, predicts Bitcoin will hit fresh all-time highs over the next few quarters. He warns investors to take profits when the market overheats and to maintain a disciplined pace.
- Optimism from Bitwise: Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, is likewise upbeat about Q2. He points to three key drivers: expanding global money supply, a record high of stablecoin assets under management, and an improving U.S. regulatory backdrop, which could push the market into a sustained uptrend.
- Real Vision's view: Real Vision founder recently overlaid Bitcoin's price against global M2 liquidity in a chart, arguing that Bitcoin should rise in step with broader money-supply growth.
On the other hand, the cautious camp sees the market still sitting near its cycle high. Markus Thielen of 10x Research points out that Bitcoin's "stochastic oscillator" indicator currently exhibits characteristics of a cycle top. He warns that, despite widespread hopes for new highs by mid-year, it is more likely the market will enter a prolonged consolidation phase, trading sideways at elevated levels, rather than launching a fresh bull run.
David Duong, Head of Research at Coinbase, noted in his latest monthly report that the market may test its lows in the middle to late second quarter of 2025, setting the stage for a recovery in the third quarter. He recommends that investors maintain a defensive posture in risk assets during this period to weather potential volatility.
4. Q2 as an Observation Window, Not a Signal to Chase Highs
Bitcoin's break above $87,000 is certainly encouraging, yet significant uncertainty remains. Fed tightening, shifting tariff rhetoric, and continued accumulation by large holders create a complex interplay of forces. While short-term volatility may persist, these catalysts also lay a solid foundation for a potential rebound in Q2.
In this volatily environment, investors should maintain vigilance and respond adaptively with their approach as conditions evolve, rather than pursue outsized gains indiscriminately. Establishing a disciplined framework is critical: define and set clear stop-limit thresholds, scale into positions incrementally, and realize profits systematically. Employing tools such as price alerts and limit orders can improve execution and bolster risk management. By combining rigor with flexibility, market participants can navigate volatility more effectively and capitalize on genuine structural opportunities.
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